ANY fears Ruth Kelly may have about losing her Bolton West seat at the next general election are unfounded, according to a website which predicts the results of the poll.

Speculation has linked the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government with a move to the safe Bolton South-east seat, which Dr Brian Iddon, who is retiring at the end of his term, won by 11,638 votes in 2005.

But the respected independent Electoral Calculus website predictions, which are based on national opinion polls, boundary changes and an identical 40,543 turnout, calculate Ms Kelly will retain a slightly reduced majority.

It calculates that her majority will fall from 5.09 per cent to 4.59 per cent - or from 2,064 votes to 1,860 votes.

The boundary changes include Bolton West losing its part of the strongly Conservative Hulton ward to Bolton South-east and gaining the left-leaning Atherton from the Leigh constituency. Had the 2005 election been based on those boundaries it calculates Ms Kelly's majority would have been 4,558 votes or 10.7 per cent.

The website also calculates that David Crausby's majority in Bolton North-east, which gains The Haulgh, would slump from 22.2 per cent to 5.92 per cent, while the majority in Bolton South-east would fall from 36.54 per cent to 25.49 per cent.

A spokesman for Ms Kelly, who has so far refused to comment on speculation linking her with a seat switch, said: "It's pleasing to see that Electoral Calculus is predicting Labour will win all three seats in Bolton.

"However, this is only a snapshot. There's only one poll that counts and that's on election day."

Dr Iddon said: "This is good news for Labour, we're working hard to keep all three seats. To win three elections in a row was exceptional, four would be a miracle.

"With Ruth Kelly gaining Atherton and losing Hulton, I would have thought she stands a better chance than ever of winning Bolton-west."

Mr Crausby said: "They're quite good-looking results considering what a bad time Labour's had over the last 12 months, and if I was a Conservative I would be quite worried."

Susan Williams, the Conservative prospective parliamentary candidate chosen to challenge Ms Kelly, said: "This website is my little bible'. As the poll stands Ruth Kelly would keep the seat, but it's early days and I will be doing my best to buck the trend predicted here."

The website, www.elec toralcalculus.co.uk, predicts nationally that Labour will win 319 seats, with the Conservatives on 277 and Liberal Democrats on 23. That would leave the Government seven seats short of an overall majority.