How will Boris Johnson lift lockdown and what will happen first?

Over the last week, Mr Johnson has been adamant that any easing of lockdown restrictions must happen in 'stages', with a return to the classroom for schoolchildren thought to be one of the first things on his agenda.

But what about the hospitality industry, gyms and leisure centres, holidays abroad and most importantly, seeing family?

While it's not yet clear exactly how the government plan to end the lockdown, with rumours pubs could only re-open in May, and no mention of any easing of restrictions for gyms or sports facilities, the PM's decisions over how and when restrictions may be lifted will be informed by the latest Covid-19 data, which he and his colleagues have examined closely over the weekend.

The key data falls into six categories: the rate of new cases of coronavirus; the number of hospital admissions and patients; the success of the vaccine rollout; the level of deaths; the estimated number of infections within the community population; and the estimated reproduction number (R), or growth, of the virus.

So what can we expect?

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the Government 'absolutely' wants the current lockdown to be the last.

He told BBC Breakfast that he wants to ensure measures are eased 'carefully and cautiously', saying: “Having a sustainable exit, so lifting the measures in such a way that can be sustainable and we don’t have to have another lockdown, that is obviously an important part of our considerations.

“For me, making sure that as we lift measures, we do so carefully and cautiously to make sure that we don’t have to put them on again, that is at the core of the judgment we have to make.”

Mr Johnson said he will set out dates 'if we possibly can' explaining they will likely be target dates 'by which we hope to do something at the earliest'.

What might reopen first?

Ministers have said the re-opening of schools in England on March 8 remains their first priority, although reports have suggested the return may be staggered, with secondary schools going back a week later.

Mr Johnson said no decisions have been made on whether year groups across schools in England will return together or whether primaries and secondaries could be staggered.

Professor Neil Ferguson, who advises the Government as part of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said modelling suggests 'there probably is leeway to reopen all schools' from March 8 but acknowledged there will be 'slightly more of a risk' in a rise in cases than if just primary schools were reopened.

Professor Gabriel Scally, president of the epidemiology and public health section at the Royal Society of Medicine and a member of Independent Sage, said schools must be made safe before reopening.

He told Good Morning Britain: “By taking on extra space, by improving ventilation, by extending mask-wearing in schools – all of these things will help.”

How is the rest of the roadmap looking?

After schools, it is expected the next areas of easing will be non-essential shops and the rules on outdoor recreation and socialising.

There has also been suggestions that the 'rule of six', which was implemented last year, will apply to outdoor recreation and socialising, and optimistic reports have leant towards pub beer gardens being opened by Easter weekend, but this is not looking likely.

So what about the hospitality industry?

Kate Nicholls, chief executive for UKHospitality, has called for a 'very clear phased exit strategy from the lockdown', with many others in the industry, particularly across East Lancashire, demanding pubs and restaurants should be allowed to reopen in line with non-essential shops.

Pubs must open at the same time as non-essential retail without restrictions say Lancashire landlords

The government has exercised caution when discussing the reopening of venues over the next few months and according to reports, there are ongoing discussions about whether the roadmap will detail pubs reopening in April or whether a more hesitant approach will be taken which could see pubs and restaurants remain shut until May.

The Prime Minister has said the easing of restrictions in England will happen in 'stages' and it looks like people will have to wait longer than hoped to visit their favourite establishment, hinting that once again the hospitality sector will be one of the last industries to reopen in England.

Gary Perkins, who owns four pubs in Darwen, has said that when he re-opens, he wants his businesses to be able to operate without having to impose onerous rules on customers.

He said: “When we are back open again, I just want to be back open.

“We are going to have to learn to live with this virus, it isn’t going to go away.

“I just want to get back to normal, I want people to come out, I want them to have a good time and I want them to make their own decisions.

“I don’t want to be imposing any more restrictions on anybody.

“The whole point of going out is to enjoy yourself, not to be told ‘you cannot do this and you cannot do that’.”

In a recent letter to Mr Johnson, chief executive of pub giant Young’s, Patrick Dardis, said: “There is no reason why pubs cannot open in April, giving people back their liberty and their much-loved pub.”

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s World At One last Monday, Mr Dardis described reports of allowing pubs to serve customers outside only as 'a nonsense' and 'just a lockdown in another name'.

But Dr Bharat Pankhania, senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter medical school, said talking about pubs reopening in April is 'premature' and pub bosses need to realise there is a danger of going 'back to square one'.

But what about holidays?

Ministers are looking at plans for people who live in the same household to be allowed to go on breaks together from April, the Times newspaper reported.

The Save Future Travel Coalition, made up of 12 leading travel trade organisations, has said it is vital that the Government works with the industry to develop a road map to reopen travel.

The coalition warns that the industry cannot afford to wait until everyone in the UK is vaccinated before people start to travel again, otherwise insolvencies and redundancies will be inevitable.

The industry argues that a risk-based approach to travel, including a co-ordinated approach to vaccine certificates and use of passenger testing will be critical in opening up the overseas travel market.

Travel trade organisation Abta also said many travel agents and tour operators have not been able to operate or generate income since the start of the pandemic last March, due to the Government advising against travel to the majority of destinations.

Two weeks ago, week Downing Street said the Government is doing 'everything we can to make sure people can have a holiday this summer' but Mr Johnson and other ministers have repeatedly cautioned that it is too early to be certain about what people will be able to do regarding holidays, although Mr Hancock told BBC Breakfast News that he had already booked a family trip to Cornwall. 

Rumour has also been rife about the need to provide a vaccine or immunity passport in order to book a foreign holiday, although questions over ethics and standards need to be answered first. 

Vaccine passports for foreign holidays are coming...but ethical standards need to be met

When will we be able to see family again?

This is still unclear, but the Daily Telegraph reported that plans are being considered that would allow grandparents to see grandchildren outdoors as early as next month.

The Daily Mail reported that the rule of six could return for outdoor gatherings, allowing people to meet in groups for walks or picnics in the park.

And what about gyms and leisure centres?

There has been no mention of when gyms, studios, leisure centres or indoor sports can re-open or resume, but the bosses of three of the UK’s biggest gym firms have called on the Government to prioritise the reopening of fitness facilities.

Chief executives at The Gym Group, David Lloyd and PureGym have warned that without a planned reopening announced, the nation’s physical and mental health could deteriorate.

UK Active data shared with the Government last week claimed that sites are 'low risk' for spreading Covid-19 and should be prioritised.

It showed that of the 75 million visits to gyms and leisure centres between the reopening of facilities last July and the third national lockdown at the start of January, only 1,277 Covid-19 cases were reported.

By comparison, 2.3 million Covid-19 cases nationally were reported during the same period, with gym users recording an overall rate of 1.7 cases per 100,000 visits.

The case rate rose from 0.1 per 100,000 visits in the week starting July 27 to a high of 4.1 at the end of the October. This had almost halved again by the final week of December, UK Active data showed.

Richard Darwin, chief executive of The Gym Group, said: “The mental health of the nation deteriorates each day that gyms remain closed, at a time when people’s wellbeing has never been more at risk.

“The link between exercise and mental health is well understood – our members rely on working out in our gyms to improve their state of mind.

“Gyms need to reopen as soon as possible for the nation’s physical and mental health.”

Glenn Earlam, chief executive of David Lloyd, added: “It’s vital for the nation’s mental health that gyms are among the first to reopen when lockdown restrictions begin to ease.

“With the pandemic having a considerable negative impact on people’s state of mind, taking regular exercise and producing endorphins has never been more crucial.

“Exercising outdoors has been even tougher during these winter months and the reopening of gyms will help to limit any further negative effects of lockdown on people’s wellbeing.”

And Humphrey Cobbold, chief executive of Pure Gym, added: “We have been going in and out of lockdown for the past year, and the nation’s mental wellbeing has suffered as a result.

“It is difficult for people to exercise outdoors in the cold, dark winter – our gyms allow people to exercise in a safe, supportive environment.

“If we are to play our crucial role in helping prevent a national mental health crisis, we must be allowed to reopen.”