There is no local lockdown in Pennine Lancashire.

We have all the same lockdown lifting ‘freedoms’ as the rest of England. However, because of the presence of the new variant (B.1.617.2) we do need to take extra care with infection control, get tested more regularly and get vaccinated as soon as possible.

The Government has now assured us they do not wish to institute any local lockdowns. They want all areas to move at the same speed in relation to the continuing lockdown lifting programme.

The Covid case rates locally continue to rise, driven by the new variant which is 30-50 per cent more transmissible than the previous UK variant. Blackburn with Darwen has instituted surge testing, surge vaccination and increased community engagement to contain the spread.

From today we will have military assistance with over 50 military personnel joining us for the surge testing programme until mid-June. They will assist us with staffing of the multiple local testing sites, allowing council staff currently in those sites to begin a programme of door to door distribution and collection of testing kits within targeted areas.

Over 90 per cent of the new cases in Blackburn with Darwen are now likely to be the new B.1.617.2 variant. A large percentage of Covid-positive cases are now in under 50s - a trend also observed in the recent surge in India. Those most likely to be confirmed Covid-positive are aged 12-19 years, with 17-18 year olds spiking at a rate of over 1,000 per 100,000. This is a rate we have not seen before in any single age cohort.

There are signs of a slow rise in hospitalisation from the surge in new cases. The numbers still relatively low. As of May 27 there were 17 confirmed in-patient cases in East Lancashire Hospital Trust with a Covid diagnosis, with 10 new admissions over the previous 24 hours. Of those cases only two were poorly enough to be in critical care. Ten of the 17 were under 50 and seven over 50.

This is a reversal of age trends in hospital admissions compared to the previous three waves. Eight of the 17 had had at least one vaccination. A significant number also had at least one complicating long-term condition.

It is too soon to conclude anything with certainty from this local hospitalisation data. However, at this time, the clinical epidemiology does seem to be giving us some early signals.

Infection with B1.617.2 may be more likely than previous variants to generate symptomatic illness in both vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. A number of those infected may require hospitalisation but the rate of discharge of hospitalised cases also seems faster than with previous variants – probably because those who are poorly enough to be admitted, are of a younger average age and many (though not all) already have some protection from vaccination. The ratio of those hospitalised to those admitted to intensive care seems lower than in previous waves – possibly for the same reasons.

The key message for now is – enjoy the new freedoms – but stay (extra) Covid-safe when out and about. Get tested regularly and if over 18 (and eligible) get vaccinated ASAP.