Martin Lewis has warned UK households that wholesale gas prices are surging following the Iran conflict, pushing fixed energy tariffs higher and threatening summer Price Cap levels.
“This has gone up again today and is now starting to get closer to Ukraine territory, about half the big spike,” Lewis said.
He added: “Planning to imminently FIX your energy bill? Don’t dawdle. Firms are repricing upwards today & tomorrow on back of Iran.”
Followed by: “Please share this with anyone on the Price Cap. Things are changing rapidly so if you are going to take action, doing it asap gives you the broadest choice.”
Important: If you can get off the Energy Price Cap right now, you should & urgently!
- The wholesale gas rate is spiking due to the Iran conflict, and it is a prime driver or UK elec prices. If that's sustained (big if), it will likely push the Price Cap rate up from July
- Some…— Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) March 3, 2026
Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, adds: “Global price shocks translate into higher energy costs because the UK remains so heavily dependent on gas and the mature North Sea basin will be unable to meet domestic demand within the next few years.
“Our energy system also links the cost of gas to electricity prices because the grid still relies on gas-fired power stations, although this influence eased last year."
What does this mean for the Energy Price Cap?
“The conflict has already started to push wholesale gas prices to levels we’ve not seen since 2023, but for now most households are shielded by the Ofgem price cap," says Mr Francis.
“Bills are effectively protected until at least July 1 2026 because the April to June cap has already been set. The cap works by smoothing out price spikes and delaying the passing on of cost increases to consumers.
"But that also means the real risk is what happens next."
Please share this with anyone on the Price Cap. Things are changing rapidly so if you are going to take action, doing it asap gives you the broadest choice. https://t.co/22v9qj1weA
— Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) March 3, 2026
But, Mr Lewis has urged customers to consider changing from the Energy Price Cap, and to do it fast.
He says: “Important: If you can get off the Energy Price Cap right now, you should and urgently.
"The wholesale gas rate is spiking due to the Iran conflict, and it is a prime driver of UK electricity prices. If that's sustained (big if), it will likely push the Price Cap rate up from July.”
Update. This has gone up again today and is now starting to get closer to Ukraine territory, about half the big spike in the second image. Still it is how sustained the move that matters. https://t.co/CmjAxmjBvJ
— Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) March 3, 2026
He highlighted that some deals are still available: “Some of the cheap fixes from before the weekend haven't (yet) been pulled, so you can still lock in a rate at around 14% less than the current Price Cap, saving money and giving peace of mind that the rate can't rise.
"But many firms are reassessing their fix prices today and may reprice their deals upward — the current cheapest fixes may be gone by tomorrow.”
Lewis also noted an unusual benefit: “Plus, fix now, and unprecedentedly the rate you lock in at will be reduced on 1 April, as the government shifts some policy costs to general taxation. That reduces electricity and gas unit rates even for those already on fixes — typically 7% to 9% lower.”
Recommended reading:
- Martin Lewis explains how to increase tax-free HMRC Personal Allowance to £18,570
- New Winter Fuel Payment system triggers HMRC Tax Code changes for pension
- Cost of living help landing next month as government support rolls out for families
Sidebar: How to tell if you’re on the Energy Price Cap
- The Price Cap applies only to firms’ Standard Variable tariffs (SVTs) .
- You’re likely on it if you haven’t chosen a deal or your fixed tariff ended and you did nothing.
- If you’re on a fixed deal, EV tariff, time-of-use, or specialist tariff , you are not on the Price Cap.
- Smart prepay users: EDF Simply Tracker can act as a near-Price Cap deal with lower standing charges and extra cashback.
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