YOU stand about as much chance of seeing Lord Lucan canvassing in Bolton as spotting either a pessimistic candidate or a captivating local issue.

If there is one thing candidates from the three main parties agree on wholeheartedly, it's that this election campaign is going to be a referendum on New Labour's first four years in Government.

But with the Tories and Liberal Democrats insisting 1997's Labour landslide -- which saw Tony Blair's team capture Bolton North-east and Bolton West -- was something of a freak result, even candidates facing five-figure majorities are talking up their chances.

They claim results last time round were the product more of a backlash against 18 years of Conservative rule than a sea-change in political affiliations.

The acid test of this theory will come in BOLTON WEST, where the Tories need a 7.2pc swing if they are to overturn Ruth Kelly's 7,072 majority.

The seat had been Tory since 1983 and is high on the Conservative target list at 118th. If they are to stand any chance of defying the polls and forming the next Goverment, it is simply a must-win constituency.

Ms Kelly, still only 33, is spoken of by some pundits as a future Cabinet minister and says she will be battling hard for every vote.

But Labour campaigners fear the campaign may become personal.

She resents accusations that she is an absentee MP and persistent, but inaccurate, rumours that she has sold her house in Bolton.

Ms Kelly did move from Heaton, but now lives in Horwich in the heart of the constituency.

As for criticisms of her Commons record, present at only 30pc of votes, she insists work on behalf of constituents is more important than than being 'lobby fodder' for a party with a huge majority.

Her campaign will focus on the argument that voting boils down to a choice between her party's continued 'reform' of public services and £16 billion of cuts which Labour allege the Tory manifesto contains.

But Tory challenger James Stevens, an RSPCA worker who opposes hunting, is confident of out-foxing her at the polls.

He believes even Labour didn't expect to win last time, and are looking nervously over their shoulders this year.

His slogan is "Putting Bolton First" and he believes the message that the Tories would be tougher on crime, one which Shadow Home Secretary Ann Widdecombe espoused in Horwich this week, will strike a chord.

He sees over-development in Lostock and Westhoughton as another issue where he can make serious in-roads into Ms Kelly's support.

Both Ms Kelly and Mr Stevens are keen to portray a cross against Liberal Democrat candidate Barbara Ronson's name as a wasted vote.

Argue

The Lib Dems, though, argue they have good reason to believe Bolton West will be a three horse race.

Although they only won 11pc of the vote in 1997, they point out that they are the dominant party in local government in the area with a well-known local politician in Mrs Ronson.

As in the two other wards, they will campaigning on a platform of 'honesty on taxation' - that if voters want better services they must be prepared to pay for them.

BOLTON NORTH-EAST is another constituency which party strategists will be watching closely.

The presence of top Tories Francis Maude and Ann Widdecombe in the last few days signals that this is a seat the party think they can win despite a 12,669 Labour majority.

But it would take a major shock for 1997 victor David Crausby to be beaten by Tory hopeful Michael Winstanley, not least because boundary changes meant traditionally Labour Halliwell was added to North-east.

Here again the Conservatives will rely heavily on the law and order card, with crime identified as a major issue by 83pc of respondents to their surveys in the constituency.

Mr Winstanley claims he is getting a good response on the doorsteps from traditional Labour heartlands such as Breightmet and Tonge.

He also believes Europe will be an issue, with Labour pledging a referendum on entering the Euro.

But Mr Crausby insists electors minds are on Bolton not Brussells, and says it is the parties different visions of the future of health, education and law and order which will decide the day.

And even Mr Kelly, who admits to being scarred by the 1992 election when he lost the seat by just 185 votes after two recounts, is brimming with confidence this time round.

Liberal Democrat former councillor Frank Harasiwka is again hoping voters will find his party's 'third way' more appealing than Tony Blair's vision.

In BOLTON SOUTH-EAST, where Labour's Dr Brian Iddon enjoys a hefty 23,311 majority, Labour's biggest enemy could be complacency.

With victory seemingly so assured, there are concerns that some supporters will think their vote makes no difference.

The seat is only 399th on the Tory target list and right down at 551 on the Liberal Democrat equivalent.

But Dr Iddon insists he will fight the seat with as much gusto as if it were a marginal. Among the issues he is keen to push are the strong economy.

Conservative challenger Haroon Rashid admits he faces a daunting task but insists it is not impossible.

He claims Labour's position of strength in Bolton South-east means it has taken the constituency for granted.

Echoing Labour tactics nationally, Mr Rashid has issued a five point pledge card focusing on law and order, improving pensions, cutting red tape in schools and hospital waiting lists and keeping the pound. Lib Dem contender Tim Perkins, however, predicts "meltdown" for the Conservatives in this year's election. He says the Liberal Democrats' popularity in local government proves they are a viable alternative.