I WAS surprised to read in Brian Derbyshire's letter, published in the BEN on October 30, that he considered my opinion that MP Ruth Kelly would probably lose her Parliamentary seat at the next election if she stood for Bolton West was "nonsense". I had thought he had better judgement. Of course my prediction could be wrong, but it is a prediction made only after careful consideration of three incontrovertible facts:

1st -- Ruth Kelly's constituency, Bolton West, is the most vulnerable of the three Parliamentary seats in Bolton. It is the one most at risk from any swing away from Labour at the next election. The other two seats have been 'solid Labour' seats for many years now, but it would take only a small swing for Bolton West to be gained by the Conservative Party.

2nd -- In the recent revolt in Parliament by Labour's backbenchers against the iniquitous 75p per week that this Government granted old age pensioners, Bolton's other two MPs, David Crausby and Brian Iddon, followed their conscience and had the courage to vote against the Government. Only Ruth Kelly voted for the Government. Bolton West has a lot of pensioners within its boundaries, and they will be unlikely to have forgotten this when they come to vote at the next election.

3rd -- At the time of the recent petrol crisis, a national poll showed that more than 90 per cent of the population supported the action of the protesters, and said they considered that tax on petrol was far too high. The Labour Party has chosen to ignore this, and arrogantly assume they can deal with the problem by heavy-handed methods. They are said to be mobilising the Army to keep supplies flowing in the event of another protest. Just think of this for a moment -- a Labour Government having to bring out the Army against its own citizens to frustrate the fully justifiable wishes of the people who elected them to office! What do you think the effect of that will be on the result of the next election? And how do you think it will effect the results on marginal seats such as Bolton West?

After reading the above, does Brian Derbyshire still think that my assessment of Ruth Kelly's chances at the next election if she fights for Bolton West "nonsense"? Does he still think (as he wrote in his letter), that "her seat is as safe as my armchair"? If he does, I would advise him to start looking for something else to sit on.

Albert Hornby

Glendale Drive, Bolton.