Bolton Wanderers bid farewell to Burnden Park - 25th anniversary gallery

With the club seemingly in stable financial condition and, in the manager’s opinion, able to shrug off anything but “stupid money” for their prized assets in the next transfer window, a squad which has finished the second half of the season stronger than anyone else barring MK Dons understandably feels optimistic for what lies ahead.

But what exactly entails “stupid money” at League One level? And what sort of life-changing amount would genuinely persuade Evatt and the Wanderers owners to sit down and talk?

Ask any Bolton fan for a tale of transfer mismanagement and they will most likely oblige.

Nobody will remember the one that started it all. In 1928 Wanderers had fallen into financial hard times, leaving them with no choice but to sell their star player, David Jack.

They got a world record fee of £10,900 for the England international, who had scored in both the 1923 and 1926 FA Cup finals. But Herbert Chapman, the legendary Arsenal boss, insisted that he had got the player for a bargain price after plying the Bolton directors with booze during negotiations in the Highbury bar.

More controversial fees followed as football’s economy developed and players got more control over their own contracts.

From Paul Fletcher to Gary Cahill, Rob Holding to Peter Reid, there has always been a claim among the Whites faithful that the club has rarely got a player’s true worth.

So, what of Santos and Afolayan, the two players attracting most attention from clubs in the Championship over the last few months?

Several factors come into play when assessing a player’s value including form, contract length, their position, the relative financial strength of the buying club and the economy of football at the time. And as they are plying their trade in League One, that will also put a ceiling on what can realistically be charged.

The three most expensive League One players of all time were all in their teens.

According to transfermrkt.com, Fabian Delph moved to Aston Villa from Leeds United in 2009 for an upfront fee of £8.55million and Ademola Lookman left Charlton Athletic for Everton for £7.92m in 2017; both players were 19 at the time.

In 2012, an 18-year-old Nick Powell left Crewe Alexandra for Manchester United for £6.75m.

Ricardo Santos

The most expensive centre-half signed from a League One club was Paddy McNair, who left Sunderland to join Middlesbrough in 2018 for just over £5million.

The Northern Ireland international had signed for a similar fee 12 months earlier on Wearside and quickly moved on after their relegation to the third tier. He was 23 at the time and had already been an international for three years.

Comparing his situation to Santos – a centre-half who has shown remarkable progress in his two seasons at Bolton since being signed on a free transfer from non-league Barnet, it would be surprising to see the same sort of fee being achieved.

Statistically, Santos ranks highly among centre-backs at League One level for aerial and one-v-one duels and a host of possession metrics which paint the picture of a defender well suited to a modern and expansive playing style, such as the one employed by Ian Evatt at Wanderers.

The fact he is ‘fashionable’ could well influence his value, and with his 27th birthday due in June, he is still very much in the prime of his playing career.

But analysing the transfer fees of all centre-backs aged 26 and over to be sold from this division, the most expensive fee - £1.7m - was gained for Garath Macauley from Leicester City to Ipswich Town.

Add to that the fact Santos has not yet agreed a new contract, leaving his current deal due to expire in the summer of 2023, and Wanderers may well feel this is not a good time to cash in.

Dapo Afolayan

Afolayan’s situation is slightly different. Not only is he an attacking player, who tend to command a premium, but he also has 14 goals to his name this season.

The winger’s history with West Ham enriches his CV and while this has been his first full season at Football League level (he had previously played full campaigns at Solihull Moors), there is an argument to suggest his value should be higher than that of Santos.

Looking back at past transfer fees, however, there has been just one occasion that a player at 24 years of age has gone for a seven-figure fee after playing in League One.

Teenagers such as Powell (£6.5m Crewe to Manchester United), Dele Alli (£6m MK Dons to Spurs) and James Maddison (£2.5m Coventry to Norwich) have commanded big fees. But Sammie Szmodics, who joined Peterborough United in 2020 for £1m, is the only player of comparable age to Afolayan to reach that mark.

Two players were sold, like McNair, from the wreckage of Sunderland’s relegation in 2018 for bigger fees – Wahbi Khazri and Fabio Borini, with both attracting £5m+ fees, but they had not actually set foot in the division and had been sold immediately on the club’s exit from the Championship.

Of those who have played a reasonable amount of League One football, Bradley Dack signed for Blackburn Rovers from Gillingham in 2017 for £765,000, with Josh Windass moving from Wigan to Sheffield Wednesday a couple of years later for £500,000. Both players were in their mid-twenties, although Bolton do have a few more factors working in their favour which could push the price higher.

While Afolayan has played comparatively few games early in his career, the fact his stock is high after his best-ever goalscoring season and that he is contracted to Wanderers until 2024 means the club’s position is a good one.

 Conclusion

Transfer fees are not an exact science but looking at past fees at League One level, fans should perhaps adjust their expectation for what would be deemed “stupid money” for players like Santos and Afolayan.

Only nine players have ever been transferred for more than £5million, five of them were in their teens and one was goalscoring phenomenon Ivan Toney.

The positive for Bolton Wanderers is that both players have progressed well under Ian Evatt and still appear to have growing room at this club. They have talked confidently about a promotion push next season and are part of a squad that has finished this year like a train.

The Championship transfer market is a completely different animal, and should Bolton reach that level they know they would have to find money to compete.

Perhaps then – and only then – should we expect the sort of fees which would genuinely change the economy and start to rival the deals we once saw for the likes of Nicolas Anelka, Gary Cahill, Jason McAteer and Alan Thompson.

Until then, money generated by Wanderers is relative. According to Evatt, the club’s wage budget is currently sixth or seventh in the division, and their net spend in January was around the £500,000 mark.

Smaller fees would make a big difference in this day and age – but we are sure that Evatt would rather have his theory about “stupid money” tested as a Championship club than in the less glamorous surroundings of League One.