AUTOMATIC promotion may soon be out of reach for Wanderers but losing hope that promotion can still happen in May could be catastrophic.

From the moment Ian Evatt walked off the pitch at Oakwell a beaten play-off semi-finalist last May we were made aware of the grand target. Manager, owner, chief executive, players – absolutely nobody at the Toughsheet has tried to hide that a top two spot was the objective, nor have they been shy of voicing that ambition on the record.

Of course, a club of Bolton size, stature and history should not be content to languish in the third tier of English football. And the league progression shown in Evatt’s previous three seasons suggested that promotion to the Championship was the next logical step.

The last few years in League One has been skewed by a small handful of huge playing budgets but this was a season in which the playing field had been somewhat levelled, and Wanderers’ more modest spending still placed them among the bigger hitters.

Up to the turn of 2024 things appeared to be going well, and though involvement in cup competitions meant a stack of games to make up on rival clubs, the Whites were well-placed for the second half of the campaign.

The points return in the 23 games prior to January 1 was 69.6 per cent, which has dropped to 55.5 per cent in the 21 games to date.

That allowed Portsmouth to pull clear, Derby and Peterborough to catch up, and ultimately puts Wanderers into the position where the play-offs appear to be their best option once again.

If Evatt is to miss out on his target, as looks likely, it will not be by much, nevertheless it will represent a galling disappointment to a young manager who has rarely experienced failure in his dugout career to date.

Many supporters are understandably voicing their frustration too. There is a very real sense that some – if not all – of the drop-off has been self-inflicted, particularly when you consider the points left out there against Wigan, Derby, Portsmouth and Shrewsbury.

There are mitigating factors to consider, such as injuries to Nathan Baxter, Dion Charles and Ricardo Santos which happened in such quick succession. But rather like the criticism, the counter argument can wait until the summer, there remains a very important job to do.

Saturday will be an interesting litmus test to see just how deep that disappointment runs. Wanderers are not completely without hope and should the result at Cambridge tip their way they must be prepared to take advantage.

Any slip from Derby would open things up to the final weekend at Peterborough, who having been pounded 5-0 by Oxford United last weekend gave themselves some mathematical hope by beating Fleetwood 4-1 in midweek. Posh’s young squad, by all accounts, is being recharged with the play-offs in mind and one wonders whether the same thoughts are shared by Evatt and his staff as the final two games approach.

The Bolton boss has shifted gears since the final whistle went against Shrewsbury, potentially in an effort to move any lasting pressure on to Derby’s shoulders. His is now a balancing act between keeping the mood as positive as possible and ensuring his strongest playing resources will be available and full fit when they are needed most.

Saturday’s opponents Port Vale have something important riding on the outcome of the game too, with relegation all-but confirmed if they leave the Toughsheet empty-handed. If Burton claim something at home to Reading, the situation will be taken out of their hands altogether.

There is a scenario where nobody leaves the stadium happy on Saturday evening, with Evatt and his players due to walk around the corner to the Premier Suite for the end-of-season awards shortly after the final whistle. At one stage it looked like being a proper knees-up but even Vernon Kay might now have to do his bit to keep confidence high when he takes the stage as host.

Cameron Jerome’s frank interview after the Shrewsbury game was well-received, accepting that the league table does not lie, and Bolton’s players must look themselves in the mirror if they fail to reach the top two. The veteran striker also correctly noted that during the same self-analysis Evatt’s squad must remind themselves of what is still at stake.

Wembley awaits the bravest team in the play-offs. Wanderers must make sure that short-term frustration does not ruin the chances of longer-term success. To self-combust at this stage makes no sense at all.