Why aerial duels could be key to Bolton Wanderers success

Asked recently about how the division differed from his previous visit in charge of Plymouth Argyle, Steven Schumacher reckoned the amount of direct football was on the rise.

The successes of Wrexham, Wycombe Wanderers and Charlton Athletic this season would seem to back his theory, with all three clubs eschewing a possession-based approach and reducing the number of passes needed to get pressure on the opposition penalty box, where possible.

All three, along with Stockport County and Mansfield Town, also make up the top five most successful crossing clubs in League One, while Wycombe and Wrexham stand clear of the rest with the most headed goals scored (16) in the regular season. Bolton managed seven.

Wrexham AFC's Eoghan O'Connell (left) headers the ball away from Leyton Orient's Charlie Kelman (Image: PA) The direct plan is not infallible, Rotherham United return similar numbers and traditionally tread the same route but have not had their usual success. Mansfield dropped sharply after a fine start and both Stevenage and Lincoln City – though the most effective set-piece teams in League One – have only rarely threatened to break into the top six. One may also argue that their smaller playing budgets do not make that revelation a huge shock.

Indeed, when Schumacher blasted his way into the Championship in 2022/23 his Plymouth team did not play especially direct football. Instead, they were able to mix and match – and that could be a clue as to what changes will be made at the Toughsheet this season.

Whereas Brimingham City’s resources have allowed them to easily transcend the different categories and compete against the various styles, Bolton’s clearly defined and deliberate gameplan, honed over the last four full seasons at this level, has too often found wanting.

Aaron Collins looks distraught after Wanderers concede against Charlton (Image: CameraSport - Lee Parker) Defensively, you don’t need to be a statistician to know that Wanderers have conceded too many goals – 70 in total. But our old friend XG (expected goals) underlines that the quality of chances presented to opponents should not have led to that high a number.

Bolton’s XG against is 15.96 goals, showing that they are underperforming more than anyone else except for Mansfield (17.49). A glance at the opposite side of the spectrum shows that Wrexham are overperforming, with a minus XG of 12.53.

Of the goals shipped by the Whites, 22 were from set pieces – the third highest in the league behind Bristol Rovers (24) and Peterborough United (25).

Opta’s stats point out that nobody won more defensive ground duels than Bolton this season (52.9 per cent) but that they fell to ninth in defensive aerial duels (51 per cent).

Will Forrester wins a ball in the air against Burton Albion (Image: CameraSport - Lee Parker) Individually, only Will Forrester pops up in the top 20 players in League One (20 appearances or more) for aerial duels won per game. His total of five puts his joint 17th with George Johnston next up in 23rd on 4.7 and Ricardo Santos 53rd on 3.5.

Chris Forino (4.7) and Eoin Toal (3.6) fall just outside the parameters but, again, it is no great surprise that Bolton do not have any attacking representation in the top 150 players.

It was said time and time again by former manager Ian Evatt that putting the ball up to his strikers in the air simply played into the hands of opposing defenders, and though efforts were made to improve Victor Adeboyejo’s strengths as a number nine, the experiment fell down as a result of a season-ending knee injury.

Neither John McAtee nor Aaron Collins are especially equipped to play as the old-fashioned centre-forward, both finding more success as supplementary strikers, from wider positions, or as number 10s. So little wonder, then, that Schumacher has made recruiting at least one striker his primary mission this summer.

Defensively, he was able to simplify things on his arrival in February, reduce the amount that Bolton were playing out from the back and compact the amount of space either side of his centre-halves. This brought out the best in Will Forrester, who had always impressed when asked to protect the penalty box but who wasn’t always as happy against more mobile front men looking to get down the sides.

Chris Forino also warmed to the approach, reserving his best performances for the final third of the season when he was fully fit and firing.

Schumacher has dabbled with a back four since his arrival, but it seems more likely that he will revert to the 3-4-2-1 formation he used to great effect at Plymouth during their promotion season. That currently leaves Forrester, Forino, Eoin Toal and George Johnston battling for the available positions, although recent links to Lincoln City’s Sean Roughan suggests there could yet be another name thrown into the mix.

Tom Eaves scores for Northampton despite the close attentions of Eoin Toal and Ricardo Santos (Image: CameraSport - Lee Parker) Despite improving results in his first couple of months, Schumacher has not yet been able to find true stability in defence. The departure of Ricardo Santos and Gethin Jones this summer guarantees a fresh look to the team and the head coach might have picked up some fragments of encouragement with what he got in the early weeks, but if he intends to focus on the players he carries through into next season, the club must find a way to keep them out of the treatment room.

There is nothing in Schumacher’s previous managerial roles to suggest he will start opting for route on in attack but his frustration with the lack of physical presence at times has been clear to see.

Both Collins and McAtee produced decent goal returns, yet with the head coach already stating he wants to bring in wide players this summer in addition to the likes of Szabi Schon and Jordi Osei-Tutu, there must surely be something for at which to aim?

Niall Ennis has been linked with Bolton - but doesn't necessarily fit the bill (Image: CameraSport - Rich Linley) Niall Ennis has been linked in the early transfer gossip columns, fuelled potentially by Stoke City’s desire to get top price with 12 months remaining on his contract.

Steve Bruce’s Blackpool – for whom he played well in the second half of the season on loan – and his former Plymouth boss Ryan Lowe, now at Wigan Athletic – have also been reported at the front of the queue.

Only Ryan Hardie scored more goals for Schumacher at Plymouth, and he netted 14 times in their promotion season. Ironically, he was on Ian Evatt’s shortlist the following summer before deciding on an ill-fated move to Blackburn Rovers, which saw him start just three league games before linking up again with Schumacher in the Potteries.

But the 25-year-old does not appear to be a pressing concern for Wanderers. While his pace and familiarity with Schumacher’s style may make him an appealing target on paper, there has been no real indication from within the club that he is on their radar this summer.

Will Wanderers opt to bring in someone cast in the same mould as some of their famous number nines of the past, who can restore some aerial threat up front, or can they succeed with another ground offensive? Only time will tell.