THERE may have been a more tactful way of putting it, but Steven Schumacher’s claim that Wanderers do not deserve automatic promotion because they have failed to beat the ‘Rotherham, Doncaster and Port Vales’ is not entirely inaccurate.
Not that he has to try too hard at Vale as an ex-Stoke manager but the Bolton boss ruffled a few feathers with his post-match comments on Saturday, conveying a conversation he had with his own players in the dressing room after a scrappy 1-0 defeat.
“You can’t expect to get automatic promotion if you can’t beat Rotherham, Doncaster and Port Vale,” he said, quoted by the BBC.
For balance, he had also echoed similar sentiment to other members of the local press a few moments earlier, qualifying his statement slightly: “We have just said to the players that we can't expect to get automatic promotion when you can't beat the last three teams that we've played, and that's no disrespect to them, if you're going for the league or trying to get automatic.”
Though some supporters of the clubs listed felt slighted by Schumacher’s words, they do point at a very real issue that Bolton have experienced this season.
Against that particular trio, Bolton have averaged 1.5 points from their six games, which is bettered by everyone in the current top eight with the exception of Reading, who still have games against Doncaster and Rotherham to play.
Opening the net wider, in 10 outings against the current bottom five of Exeter City, Blackpool, Rotherham United, Northampton Town and Port Vale the Whites have managed four wins, four draws and two defeats, a return of just 1.6 points per game.
Unsurprisingly, Lincoln (2.11) and Cardiff (2.13) have better records and have not yet played their full quota, with the three other sides in the play-off positions, Bradford (2.5), Stockport (2.75) and Stevenage (2.25) faring even better.
After a miracle comeback to beat Wycombe on March 7, Bolton may have looked ahead at their next three fixtures against sides in the lower half of the table as a golden opportunity to make up ground on the top two.
Cardiff had just been beaten at home by Lincoln, and the Bluebirds did indeed stumble in the four games they have played since, taking five points out of a possible 12.
Had Wanderers found a way to beat Rotherham, Doncaster and Port Vale, the gap to second would currently be four points, with a trip to Cardiff to come at the start of April.
Instead, they remain third on goal difference from Bradford City, seven points ahead of their next opponents Plymouth, who are currently just outside the play-off positions and awaiting that fixture with the same intention as Bolton had reserved for their trip to South Wales. The hunters have become the hunted.
Schumacher put a brave face on Saturday’s performance, maintaining that the unique conditions at Vale Park which prompted him to change to a more direct playing style would not be repeated in the run-in, which also pits the Whites against Stockport, Stevenage, Huddersfield, Bradford and Luton before the end of the season.
Bolton’s record against the current top eight is reasonable with two wins, six draws and a single defeat from the nine such occasions to date.
If you were to factor in results against Huddersfield and Luton, who currently sit just outside the top eight, then Schumacher’s side average 1.45 points per game. If you were to extrapolate that over the remaining seven fixtures it would leave Bolton roughly 10-11 points better off, which would be enough for sixth spot in seven of the last 10 non-Covid affected seasons.
The ‘supercomputer’ at Opta still gives Bolton a 94.5 per cent chance of making the play-offs, although that is unlikely to provide much solace to the Bolton fans who feel there has been a sharp drop-off in performance levels this month.
Schumacher maintains that his side has played well, even though the overriding emotion has been frustration after so many drawn games. That confidence is rooted in the underlying data, and up to the weekend it is correct to say that only Lincoln City had been outperforming Bolton on points taken since they began a 13-game unbeaten streak in mid-January.
Unfortunately for him and the Wanderers players, a recency bias will linger through the international break. Dropped points against Rotherham, Doncaster and Port Vale will stoke concerns and fuel any argument for those who feel the club is about to lose their grip on a top six position.
If, as the head coach claims, his players’ confidence has not been affected and that it will be a different story on his old green stomping ground at Plymouth compared to the sand and mud in Burslem on Saturday, then perhaps some of the doubters can start to change their mind again?
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