Bolton will be a key battleground during the next general election, new analysis suggests. 

The Bolton North East constituency, currently held by Conservative MP Mark Logan, has been suggested as the eighth most important for Labour. 

The party would only need around a 1.3 per cent swing in the area to gain the seat. 

This comes as the North West holds five of Labour’s top 10 targets and three of the Tories’ top 10.

At the 2019 General Election, Mr Logan won Bolton North East by a margin of 1,278 people. 

He said: "Since 2019, and despite a global pandemic, growth and investment has been centred in our town. 

"This Conservative government has supported my mission to make Bolton a better place to live, work and visit with over £40 million investment for town centre regeneration. 

"Furthermore, a new £20 million Bolton College of Medical Sciences is in the making, securing world class health services for future generations in Bolton." 

The Bolton News: Bolton North East MP Mark LoganBolton North East MP Mark Logan (Image: Office of Mark Logan MP)

Labour candidate for Bolton North West, Kirith Entwistle, said: "The polls are looking good for us, I keep hearing 'you'll win it' but we know from previous elections you can't take anything for granted. 

"My plan is to make sure the campaign is strong, to speak to voters and hear their problems and concerns. 

"After 14 long years of the Conservatives, we need real change. I intend to focus on the cost of living crisis. The Prime Minister is out of touch with what people on the ground are experiencing. 

"The Labour party has put work in to change the party for the better. I want Bolton to be getting the representation it deserves. I will be putting Bolton first if elected, it is my home town that means a lot to me and I want to make sure it is properly represented." 

The top targets for the next general election are based on how easy or hard it would be for a seat to change hands.

Research by the University of Plymouth looked into the swing that would be needed in each parliamentary seat for it to change hands. 

In order to identify which seats on the new electoral map will be the parties’ top targets, and to work out the swing needed for these seats to change hands, a set of notional results for the last general election has been calculated to show what would have happened if that contest had taken place using the new boundaries.

The Bolton News: Kirith Entwistle, the Labour candidate for the constituencyKirith Entwistle, the Labour candidate for the constituency (Image: James Entwistle)

These notional results have been compiled by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the PA news agency – all of whom will use the figures as the basis for reporting the gains and losses at the next general election. 

The notional majority of Chris Green MP in Bolton West is 10,619 votes, or 21.29 per cent. 

In the new Bolton South and Walkden constituency, Yasmin Qureshi MP's notional majority is 10,929, or 24.85 per cent. 

In Burnley, Labour only needs a swing of 0.13 percentage points to gain it from the Conservatives, making it their most important seat.

New constituency Leigh and Atherton is second on the list, with a swing of under 0.5% being enough for the opposition party to take it.

Bury South and Bury North East are at sixth and seventh on the list, requiring swings of under 1 per cent and around 1.2 per cent respectively for Labour to take them. 

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Read more: Prime Minister told about the issues which matter in Bolton during visit to NWThe Bolton News: A polling stationA polling station (Image: PA)

Heywood and North Middleton is the Conservatives' seventh highest priority, needing just under 1 per cent. 

Boundary changes are also taking place this upcoming election. 

Leigh & Atherton, Bangor Aberconwy and Wolverhampton West are all examples of new seats. 

They have been created as part of a UK-wide redrawing of constituency boundaries, which has been done to reflect changes in the size of local populations.

This is also why Bury South will be treated as a Conservative defence at the next election, even though its present MP, Christian Wakeford, defected from the Tories to Labour halfway through the current parliament.

The last time a major redrawing of boundaries took place was ahead of the 2010 general election.